Methods of reservoir flood routing risk analysis and risk rate calculation based on forecasting flood volume error distribution are raised.
依据水库实时防洪调度流程,分析了水库防洪决策风险源;提出了基于洪量预报误差分布的水库调洪演算风险分析和风险率计算方法;建立了水库实时防洪调度风险交互模拟分析模型,为实时决策中的不确定性分析提供了实用工具。
This article discusses the hydraulic risk rate of the existing dam based on the achievement of hydraulic model test.
在水工水力学模型研究成果基础上,采用MC法对现役大坝泄洪能力风险率做进一步探讨,研究表明:(1)水力的不确定性对大坝防洪安全确实存在影响,但风险值较小;(2)国内绝大多数大中型现役坝的水力风险几近为0,设计偏于保守。
Under such of output and time-period initial water level being known circumstances, to put up the relation between natural inflow and reservoir water level, and so to reach to the risk rate of reservoir electric power regulation.
在出力和时段初水位已知的情况下,将天然来水和库水位建立联系,从而得到水库发电调度的风险率。
A stochastic simulation technique is applied to calculate the risk probability based on joint probability theory.
建立了包括经济评价、风险分析和防洪效益模拟的综合系统分析模式,提出了采用重点抽样法进行风险率的计算,同时考虑了随机变量之间相关性大小对风险率的影响,并对有关参数作出灵敏度分析,使得决策指标更加切合实际。
The mathematical model of risk probability of the criteria of river persion is established.
分析了影响导流标准风险的各种不确定性因素,建立了施工导流标准风险率的数学模型,并通过对风险率模型性质的研究,给出了风险率的点估计和区间估计的计算公式。
This paper also puts forward the specific methods and procedures to calculate river closure risk probability by means of the data surveyed in practice and stochastic simulation method with an illustrating case study made on the data surveyed in practice.
从全面分析立堵截流风险的角度出发 ,总结了大落差、高流速型截流工程的两种合理的截流风险变量和风险率模型 ,提出了用实测资料法和随机性模拟法计算截流风险率的具体方法和步骤 ,而且用实测资料法进行了工程实例计算 ,计算结果表明两种模型具有一致性 ,并初步揭示了风险率的一些规律 ;在此基础上 ,进一步分析了截流风险的评价和处理准则 ,提出了截流方案合理风险度的建议 ,为截流方案风险决策奠定了基
In the abandonment point, when the sunk costs were small or the hazard rate was high, the Marshallian level was exceeded .
影响的结果是使得决策投资进入点升高 ,在退出点 ,如沉淀成本较小或风险率很大时 ,退出点超过Marshallian水平 ,使得公司在期望价值为正时也可能放弃研
This paper introduces a few main Stochastic orderings,including expected utility criterion,stochastic dominance,likelihood ratio,hazard rate and mean-variance rule,and finally discusses the relations among these stochastic orderings.
文章先介绍了几种主要的随机序,其中包括期望效用准则、随机占优、单调风险率条件、单调似然率条件和均值-方差准则,然后在此基础上研究了它们之间的关系。
Research of risk analysis of water conservancy projects and related indexes;
水利工程风险率及β指标的研究
Then, the stochastic mathematical model of flood routing is introduced to transform the risk of hydrological forecasting into risk of flood control.
本文从水文预报误差的不确定性分析出发,将短期洪水预报精度评定指标转化为入库洪水过程的随机特征值,并引入水库调洪演算随机数学模型,从而实现水文预报风险向预报调度风险的转化,为定量考察预报调度风险率、合理选择动态的汛限水位提供了科学的依据。
By consideration of uncertainty of hydrology and hydraulics, risks of riverclosure system have beed defined.
分析了影响施工截流标准选择的不确定性因素及其分布，提出了施工截流系统风险率的概念，建立了风险率计算模型，并探讨了求解方法。
The failure rate curve is an important basis for establishing the scheme of the technical support in medical engineering.
本文应用医疗设备间期分布函数研究了医学工程质量控制的风险分析方法,该方法能够根据医疗设备故障间期计算设备故障风险率在服役期或修复期内的变化曲线。
Mixtures of Laplace distribution may be unimodal or bimodal with the tail of its failure rate horizontal in equal variance case and degressive in unequal variance case.
两个拉普拉斯分布的混合分布在形态上主要有单峰态及双峰态,其风险率在发展到一定时间以后或呈平尾稳定(同方差情形)或快速下降(异方差情形),研究其特征及相互关系在风险研究领域有着重要的实际意义;在研究混合正态峰态特征的启发下,从密度函数和风险函数的形态性质入手,比较全面地讨论了混合拉普拉斯分布及其风险率形态变化的所有可能及其对应的各种具体条件。
Development of the software for the risk probability analysis of long-distance oil/gas pipeline;
长输油气管线风险概率分析软件研究
A research on risk probability decision making on tramp ship voyage estimate;
不定期船航次估算的风险概率决策研究
To assess the complex system's risk probability while the number of the simples was limited,the small probability assessment modeling method by small simples was put forward,and the mapped relationship between the cumulating probability and the extremum of the critical parameter was approached by nonlinear function.
建立了风险概率评估数学模型,通过非线性回归方法得到了风险概率评估基本模型。